Mr. Obama takes office on Tuesday. Besides the very touchy economy, a few things on the go that could spoil his party:
1) So it appears that Hamas will respect the ten-day ceasefire that has been declared by Israel in the Gaza campaign -- for at least one week. That may be good news, but after three weeks and 1200 lives lost one has to wonder what has been accomplished especially when one considers that a fire was rocket after the Jerusalem government declared they had "destroyed" the ability to fire those rockets.
Of course what had to be done to stop the terrorists had to be done, but was it really necessary to hit a UN school and a Red Crescent hospital? And of those killed, how many were actually militants in Hamas? General elections in Israel are next month and as always security will be at the top. Would Obama prefer to work with Tzipi Livni or Benjamin Netanyahu? And who will the spoilers be? These are things totally out of his control no matter what conspiracy theorists may believe.
2) Meanwhile, the sabre-rattling from Pyongyang continues with the claim that North Korea now has enough plutonium to build four nuclear weapons. Big deal -- the United States probably has a couple hundred of them stationed in South Korea. And the persistent rumours about "Dear Leader" Kim Jong Il's health continues which should be of concern to everyone. He's a certifiable nutcase (by our standards, anyway) but will a worse come in his place?
Will Obama stand up to Kim, or will he roll over? Can he continue to count on reliable allies like Japan and Australia or will they urge a different path to solving the Korean issue? This isn't a 100 day issue -- this could heat up in the next two weeks.
3) Finally, another "deal" to allow natural gas to flow again in Europe; but this is a major security headache for the West. While most of Europe is in the EU and therefore America's competitor, most of the EU states are also American allies in NATO and Russia's shutting off the gas again could, in these tense times, be tantamount to an act of war. If that happens again, will Obama stand by America's old friends or will he let them freeze in the dark -- after promising to restore the bridges that Dubya destroyed?
I want to be optimistic about the answers to all three, but these are crazy times we live in. And there could always be a domestic crisis -- Clinton had to deal with WTC attack #1 and the Waco Whacko in his first few months.
Stay tuned.
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