Isn't this 1984 all over again? A near deadlock in the Israel election yesterday with Tzipi Livni's Kadima and Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud neck and neck. Livni is just slightly ahead, but has few parties on the left to choose from as coalition partners, than does Netanyahu on the right. Livni suggested last night she offered Netanyahu the prospect of a national unity government but that the idea was rejected. Avigdor Liberman's Beitenu is third while the once powerful Labour under Ehud Barak dropped to fourth.
I remember 1984 when there were relatively fewer parties in the mix, and after a lengthy stalemate Shimon Peres and Yithzak Shamir agreed to a unity government and took turns as Prime Minister for two year stints. The partnership worked somewhat, in that the runaway inflation of the period was brought under control; but the "who's on first" game and the uncertainty created gave time for Yasser Arafat to reorganize, begin the first intifada and eventually to his 1988 "recognition" of the Israeli fact.
With the Palestinians torn asunder with divisions far greater than two decades ago, any length of uncertainty will only give Fatah and Hamas more time to cause more problems. Peres, now the country's President (a mostly honourary position) now has to figure out who has the best chance of forming a stable government -- not a role he's going to appreciate, that's for sure.
My sense? Even if Livni winds up putting something together, she's no Golda Meir. Her "Believni" campaign -- a rip-off of Obama's "Change we can believe in" -- falls short of credible. And Netanyahu, the darling of many US televangelists, is certainly no Menachim Begin. Neither it seems has what it takes to get the ultimate goal -- an Israel that can be at peace with all of its Arab neighbours and finally resolves the Palestinian issue with dignity. I expect another four years of flare-ups with Hamas and Fatah -- which can only be a bad thing for stability in the region. The way things are going it could even the opportunity for a Palestinian group even more hostile to the mere idea of Israel, than Hamas ever has been.
Which I think should be a cause of concern for people everywhere who believe in democracy -- no matter what side one is on regarding Palestine.
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