The "new" Russia: resolving old grievances?

As the situation in Eastern Europe escalates and the US is offering humanitarian aid, some of my thoughts about what's going on.

Back in 1991, as the world's attention was diverted towards the first Gulf War, the then Soviet Union launched a surprise military invasion of Lithuania, the Baltic State then most stridently seeking independence. The world rightly condemned the move, but Moscow seemed unfazed, claiming it was a pre-emptive move to protect the rights of the Russian minority. Yet a month after the failed August coup later that year, Gorbachev allowed Lithuania along with Estonia and Latvia to secede -- and by the end of the year, the remaining twelve republics had decided to dissolve their union.

For the longest time, the Russian Federation -- the largest of the twelve -- raised hackles about both NATO and the EU expanding eastward to where the client states and, really the former vassal republics, held ground. No doubt they were worried about Poland and Lithuania in particular, as their joining both organizations effectively left the Kaliningrad Oblast -- formerly East Prussia -- completely surrounded and separated from the rest of the "motherland." But it was mostly words, until recently. So what changed?

It must truly be grating to most Russians that with the expansion of the Schengen area last year, it's actually more difficult to go from Russia to one of the Baltic States to visit relatives who live there (because of the tougher border controls at the perimeter), than it is to go from Russia to the Ukraine or Georgia to visit their cousins there. There are still substantial minority communities in the "outer countries," as some Russians call them, and they view attempts to diminish the rights of their brethren as an insult to their collective pride. For instance, Latvia is about ⅓ Russian and a new citizenship law requires its residents to speak Latvian even though many have lived in the country their entire lives from birth and didn't ever have a reason to speak the language, until now. So much for "For the Motherland, for Stalin." (Not that I ever cared for the Communists, of course.) Certainly, one should learn the majority language, but from a Russian perspective this is seen as a slap in the face.

Perhaps Russia could ultimately tolerate being surrounded by its enemies to the West, but a potential expansion of NATO to the south (including the Ukraine and Georgia, both of which also want to be in the EU) leaving them surrounded must have been too much to bear for the Big Black Bear, especially when both also have large Russian minorities. They can't easily access their own brothers in the three Baltic States (which minority, ironically, do have freedom of movement between those three countries, and the rest of Central and Western Europe as do all other EU citizens). Hence, the last week's events that have seen Russia and Georgia at war, so they don't lose any remaining connections.

This is much more than about a dispute over territories (South Ossetia and Abkahzia) or about a gas pipeline. It's about pride. Russia was going to push back. It was just a question of when. Doing it just before the Olympics certainly caught the world's attention which is exactly what Moscow wanted.

Should the Ukraine and Georgia be part of the organizations that have ensured stability, economic prosperity, and freedom in free Europe since 1949; which have extended that prosperity as the territories moved further east with the end of Communism? Something which both Obama and McCain are now demanding? In my opinion, yes. Absolutely. Are they going to join any time soon? No way. Certainly not as long as Russia continues to sink back into dictatorship. One democracy does not attack another. A democracy will certainly attack a dictatorship, or vice versa.

I shudder at the thought we may see another round of ethnic cleansing. Of course, not all Russians would want that, at all. But from many Russians' perspective (and it is a large number), Russia is wherever a Russian lives, even if she's outside Russia proper. So, even if Russia does become a democracy again (not for a long time, I'm afraid), this issue won't go away. Russia won't rest until they get some kind of Greater Russia with a contiguous population, just as much as Nazi Germany was able get more and more land in return for appeasement.

Welcome to the new reality. For the record I say, no appeasement. Avoid war at all costs, but absolutely no concessions, under any circumstances.

Vote for this post at Progressive Bloggers.