Friday, January 2, 2009

RIP Claiborne Pell

This was a forward thinking and really progressive guy. Claiborne Pell, the longtime former Senator from Rhode Island who was as close to nobility as it gets in America. His bloodline included people who fought on both sides of the Revolution, a vice-president and five members of Congress. He was one of the heirs of a tobacco fortune and he married into a family that controls a major supermarket chain.

But he also had a genuine affection for blue-collar Schmos (unlike the faux sympathy exhibited by the Kennedys). Pell died yesterday at 90.

Sen. Pell was big on funding arts, education and the humanities; but is best known for introducing the Pell Grants in the 1970s, which offered subsidies for lower income students to attend university. As well he fought to expand student loans guarantees for everyone else. This was during the Nixon Administration, it should be pointed out, but here was a Democrat who was able to play in Nixon's royal court and win. Sadly, those grants -- one of the key planks of higher education in America for more than 30 years was slashed brutally in 2006 as part of massive budget cuts needed to fund the Iraq misadventure and the grants are about 20% less than what they should be right now.

However, his important contributions in seeking out the best in us rather than the worst is truly noteworthy and for that I salute him. Hopefully, in the painful cuts that Obama will have to make when he takes over the White House in less than three weeks there will be room to bring back Pell funding to where it should be (it would take about $12.5 billion more to do that). In this job market, retraining should be available to the maximum number of people and not just those who can afford it via their own means.

Having physically fit students is important (hence the need for sports and recreation) but also important is developing the arts and social sciences. We need well rounded people who can enjoy the opera or live theatre as much as NASCAR or ice hockey. And they need to come from all classes, not just segregated into one group that likes this and another that likes that. Pell understood that.

If we only had that kind of vision in Canada. If only we had someone who saw the big picture and saw the long-term rather than short term expediencies. Iggy may have a better idea about that but even he's not quite fully there. Of course, Harper is content to be "a fruit," as he himself put it, and is willing to see younger Canadians turn into fruits as well.

And we all know what happens when we squeeze most fruits.

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Thursday, January 1, 2009

Negative Option CD-ROMs

Happy New Year to one and all. Let this be a good year and may good triumph over evil in whatever form it may take.

For the last number of years or so, we've all seen those commercials for something called "Video Professor." You know, get a "free" CD-ROM instructional video that teaches you anything and everything you wanted to know about 80 or so computer programs, or how to buy and sell on eBay. The pitch -- once you try one of their products, you'll want to keep buying more stuff.

I've been wondering what the catch could be? Then I did a simple google and it became obvious: It's set up like one of those book or CD clubs. Every month, you're offered a new lesson. If you don't mail that card back in time saying you don't want it, you get dinged on your pre-authorized credit card -- up to $80 US a month. Yes, the continuity sales model or what we call "negative option billing."

Certainly, they're entitled to run their business that way -- it's not illegal. But has it turned me off from even wanting to try it? You bet it has. No question, some people actually get something out of negative option billing -- I have a friend who actually wanted to get children's educational books that her kid benefited from, until her then husband cancelled the subscription without informing her he'd done so. You can imagine how the kid felt when he found out daddy took away his books.

But it should be stated up front in bold, not in fine print, what the terms and conditions are. There's no such thing as a free home alarm (there's usually a four year minimum contract), any more than there is a "free" instructional video -- it doesn't cost all that much to mail a CD-ROM, just oversize postage and it costs, what, 50 cents to burn a disk?

It's the old, I wish I'd thought of that ... so yeah, I respect the guy for that. But there's no such thing as a free lunch.

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Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Year End Music Retro: Rasputin (and more euro ranting)

I wanted to write a comment last night, then today, about the sudden collapse the last few months of the pound against the euro (to nearly par) but that's something I can't really measure since I'm not that familiar with the 4X market and the rough drafts I had for a more fulsome post were just exercises in futility.

All I know is that the last few months, the idea of countries like Denmark, Poland and even Iceland joining in on the bandwagon because their currencies have become quite devalued, has suddenly become rather popular in their respective countries. The UK jumping on as well may be an inevitability but on terms like this is almost insulting -- they had a better chance when the euro was at 58p back in 2000 and now it's virtually par, £=€. At least it's not Zimbabwe where the currency drops 1,000,000% every six months before having to be reset again and again.

It's also worth noting Slovakia joins the currency tomorrow, the first ex-Warsaw Pact entity to do so, which should put added pressure on Russia as they have one less currency to manipulate. Not that they really can when oil has dropped to $37 this morning (from a high of $147 earlier this year) and the wholesale price of gas is now just 86¢ per gallon. (And that isn't the price that we're paying -- that's the price refineries charge each other.)

So, totally out there, and not entirely by coincidence, I offer this song.

Yup, Boney M's biggest hit. And contrary to some common thought, this weren't a one hit wonder either.



Happy New Year.

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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Is Ford next?

We have this romantic vision of corporate raiders -- people who swoop into a company, hope to add value to it, then sell it back on the market for a hefty profit. In reality, they can be brutually ruthless; demanding huge concessions from employees and the banks and showing little regard for individual investors. And so we have what came down yesterday on the markets.

Ford may not be in as much trouble as its US competitors, but it's not exactly out of the woods either. Unlike GM and Chrysler which have gotten loans from the government, Ford has asked for a line of credit "just in case."

Now, corporate raider Kirk Kerkorian had made things just a bit more complicated, and has taken a huge loss in dumping the 133 million plus shares he holds in Ford. He had bought the shares at an average of $7.10 and has dropped them at around $2.40.

Not that he's going to hurt that much -- he's a multi-billionaire and can write off his capital losses against any capital gains in other companies so he really loses nothing. So what's the problem? When that many shares suddenly float back on the market, it results in a major dilution of the stock price and it makes the ordinary stockholder who's already lost value hurt even more. In this case, the price dropped five percent in one day.

Often times there is a direct link between the stock price and the company's ability to finance its debt. If a company is worth only so much on paper but it owes many times more in instruments -- well, the company winds upside down. If the company has to refinance, usually the stockholders are the last to get what's left making the shares worthless or only a fraction of what they were. If the company is successful, stockholders often see a reverse split -- that is fewer shares are outstanding.

Remember Air Canada -- when it had to reorganize a few years ago, there was a stock consolidation, or "reverse split," of almost 14,000 to 1. The company of course survives, for now, but too many people got left out in the cold, employees as well as shareholders. Those who had a few hundred shares or less were just given a check for dollars -- if that -- and said, we don't want you around anymore.

Kerkorian, who's variously held stakes with GM and Chrysler in the past in the hopes of taking them over before he pulled out, ran into a firewall at Ford where the Ford family owns a tiny fraction of the shares but preferred voting rights effectively giving them 40% of the company. They weren't about to sell the store to a Johnny come lately any more than they were going to turn the keys over to Lee Iacocca thirty years ago.

But the storm is coming to Ford, too, and there may wind up being another raider who demands even tougher conditions to refinance -- at which point they'll wish they had talked deal with the last guy. And the layoffs, even more massive than what the "angel" would have asked for.

As far as the Japanese auto makers, they are not doing that much better. They may have more prudent business models and a more compact dealer network (making life easier) but when even Toyota announces a loss as they did last week, the first since World War II, the thought they might be passing the plate soon too is very frightening.

You thought our corporate raiders were bad? Wait until a sovereign wealth fund takes over one of the Japanese companies -- especially if the SWF is a crony for the Beijing government or a sheik who openly supports Osama Bin Laden.

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Monday, December 29, 2008

Unfunny parody song could cost GOP chair candidate

An infamous parody song called "Barack the Magic Negro," which first came to light when Rush Limbaugh first broadcast it in April 2007 (no surprise there) has reared its head a second time. Now to be fair, this all got started a month before when a liberal commentator named David Ehrenstein wrote an op-ed piece of the same name in the LA Times, criticizing Barack's candidacy as a way of "assuaging white guilt" for the mistakes of the past in the same way black entertainers have broken through the colour barrier -- Sidney Poitier and Diahann Carroll to name just two.

That was in itself offensive. Entertainers are just entertainers and to pigeonhole them because they're of a certain race or ethnic group is just wrong.

But then the song came out. Rush thought it was funny and so did his ditto-heads. Most of us of course did not. It features an Al Sharpton impersonator singing these lyrics to "Puff the Magic Dragon." Here's the first stanza:

"Barack the Magic Negro lives in D.C./ The L.A. Times they called him that/ 'cause he's not authentic like me / Yeah the guy from the L.A. paper / said he made guilty whites feel good/ they'll vote for him and not for me/ 'cause he's not from the hood..."


Yeah, that's a feel good song right there. The author of that, by the way, was Al Shanklin, a con commentator.

What's gotten everyone into a lather now? One of the leading candidates to be the new chair of the Republican Party, Chip Saltzman, has been distributing a CD with the song (which also includes about 40 other anti-liberal screeds of a provocative nature, such as "Wright Church, Wrong Pastor" and "The Stay-Spanglish Banner") to other party officials hoping to elect him as the guy who will take on "The Black President." Needless to say, the outgoing chair, Mike Duncan, says the song sends precisely the wrong message and that the GOP needs to reach out to expand its base in the wake of last month's election where the party not only lost the White House but hemorrhaged in Congress as well as the majority of state houses for the first time in over a decade.

For his part, Sen. Obama over a year ago thought it was just another parody and he wasn't going to be bothered by it. On the other hand, Peter Yarrow of Peter, Paul and Mary (and who has been maligned over the decades since many people think "Puff the Magic Dragon," which he co-wrote with Lenny Lipton, is about marijuana) wrote an op-ed piece at HuffPo slamming the piece and the mean-spiritedness it engenders:

What might have been wearily accepted as "the way it was" in the campaign, is now unacceptable. Obama is not a candidate. He is the President-Elect, and this song insults the office of the Presidency, the people who voted for him, as well as those who did not -- and taking a children's song and twisting it in such vulgar, mean-spirited way, is a slur to our entire country and our common agreement to move beyond racism.

It is almost unimaginable to me that Chip Saltzman who sent the CD, would seriously be considered for the top post of the Republican National Committee. Puff, himself, if asked, would certainly agree.


Don't forget, until the Great Depression, most blacks -- those who could vote -- supported the Republicans. I get the joke, but Duncan is right; this is not the way to move race relations forward -- or to take the party back to the future when it and not the Democrats were in the vanguard of race relations.

If the GOP wants to officially position itself as a pro-white party, then it should do so openly and with honesty and not cheap political stunts like this even if it was a lefty who started it. Frankly, Saltzman should be kicked out of the party. He belongs in the Constitution Party, not the Republicans. He just doesn't get it, any more than Lyndon B. LaRouche -- at least in his case he left the Dems before they could force him out.

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Sunday, December 28, 2008

Israel's raids over Gaza, to what end?

Every country has a right to defend itself, so in one respect Israel's air raids over Gaza this weekend are totally understandable. When there have been multiple attacks from the other side of the fence, of course you're going to fight back. On the other hand, where legitimate military targets and residential areas are so closely packed together, the type of pinpoint precision required to make it a successful operation is next to impossible. So no one should be surprised at the already high death toll, well over 270 civilians.

If Israel thinks this is going to put Hamas out of business any time soon, it is tragically mistaken. Hamas' stated goal is the destruction of Israel and there are millions around the world willing to underwrite such an effort. In the short term, some military advantage might be obtained by making a group of already impoverished people even further. In the long run, though, I think Israel as well as other countries facing terrorist threats need go after wire transfer companies and informal money remittance systems such as the hawalas to even begin to get a grip on the situation let alone get the upper hand.

When all of this comes to an end, and there is an actual peace agreement and one that manages to stick, the notion of a contiguous West Bank and the Gaza as an exclave of it is almost impossible to imagine. Instead, one will see multiple enclaves and exclaves -- not of the type that distinguishes the Belgian-Dutch town of Baarle with its bizarre map (bizarre but manageable with Europe's open borders) but more like Cooch-Behar on the India-Bangladesh border where even basic services are denied because one lives on the wrong part of the map.

No country can viably exist with such inherently stupid and irregular borders which is almost certain to happen if the illegal and legal settlements on the West Bank are not evacuated. Palestine is doomed to be a failed state from day one unless it actually has viable territory and is able to suppress any and all terrorists and from all quarters also from day one. If it can't get either, then Israel will be even more vulnerable than it is right now -- when someone even worse than Hamas takes over Judea and Samaria as well as Gaza.

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Wednesday, December 24, 2008

"Clean coal"? Humbug!

Here's a pleasant way to wake up on Christmas Eve: To discover you're surrounded by 500 million gallons of coal sludge -- which happened after a containment wall holding back the mess broke. About 400 acres in eastern Tennessee have been covered by the mess which will take at least 6 weeks to clean up and who knows what other damage has been done. 400 acres, more than the area covered by the Exxon Valdez spill.

Welcome to the world of clean coal, people.

After a record breaking $50 million ad campaign to brainwash Americans into believing that it's the way to go, we have this awful mess. Where exactly are the tailing that come from "cleaning" coal supposed to go anyway? You have to put all that fly ash somewhere -- you know, arsenic, benzene, mercury; all natural substances but when concentrated in coal burning that's where the problems start. Carbon capture and sequestration can only handle so much. Sure, the argument will be "this was the dirty coal" but who believes that crap anymore? Clean coal, dirty coal. ToMAYto, ToMAHto.

You want to prove it works? Run a real demonstration project, and accept full liability from any bad stuff that comes from it, including disasters like this.

***

I'll be on and off during the next week or so. Merry Christmas, y'all.

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Monday, December 22, 2008

Stupid, stupid, New York Times!

You'd think the NYT would have learned its lesson by now.

Not a chance. They got punk'd by someone claiming to be Bertrand Delanoë, the mayor of Paris, and published a letter to the editor today, criticizing Caroline Kennedy.

Sorry, but the editor's retraction doesn't cut it. Read the letter for yourself, and the ed's apology to see what I mean. Would they have published the same letter if the letter writer signed it "Heywood Jablome" or "Hugh Jass"?

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Harper does a Chrétien, Mulroney, Trudeau ... all of them

My preference for Senate reform, the last number of years, has been a hybrid system -- having half the Senators elected by the people with the other half selected by the provincial and territorial legislatures, and both on a PR basis. I'd stick with the current levels of representation pending discussions on realigning the numbers by province, while doubling the number of Senators from each territory from one to two to preserve the hybrid system.

Failing that, and keeping the status quo, I would hope that the appointments to the Senate reflected the best Canada had to offer -- sports figures, entertainers, writers, well respected lawyers and so forth. Far as I can tell, I can only pick out three names out the eighteen summoned today who meet this standard: Former skier Nancy Greene, journalist Pamela Wallin and Chief Patrick Brazeau (whose lobby represents off-reserve North American Indians in Canada).

The rest are nothing but Con hacks, least of them Mike Duffy of the Conservative Television Network. And it makes Stephen Harper, who has claimed he wants Senate reform, look like the ultimate hypocrite -- not that many of us already knew that.

Also, Harper bypassed the House Justice Committee and directly named Thomas Cromwell to the Supreme Court of Canada. Qualified he may be, but if a government says that key appointments to the courts as well as the arms-length offices of government will be subject to Parliamentary review, shouldn't Harper stick by that?

Not a good day for democracy. Not unexpected either when Harper is basically our gauleiter for seven weeks while Parliament is suspended.

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Meanwhile, in Minnesota ...

It's been, what, seven weeks since the generals in the States, and they're STILL counting the ballots in the state where the Vikings allegedly landed a thousand years ago. They took a break over the weekend because poll officials said they were exhausted (who wouldn't be?). But the disputed votes should be settled by tomorrow, and comedian Al Franken is saying that when all is said and done he expects to win by anywhere from 35-50 votes.

That's a pretty bold prediction, even if it's more conservative than the 75-80 vote lead most observers have it at right now. Who knows who will come out on top when it's really all over, after court challenges and such. Of course, if Franken really does win, it's only a matter of time before we see Sen. --- Jerry Springer. He was the mayor of Cincinnati, after all.

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Sunday, December 21, 2008

Sunday night music retro: Little Drummer Boy / Peace on Earth

With Christmas in just a few days, this classic from 1977 -- recorded in September of that year, the duet with Bing Crosby and David Bowie, just one month before the Old Groaner died.



To this day, still one of the most surreal moments in television history, knowing one of the guys was already dead when it was first broadcast.

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You want the NYS Senate seat, Caroline? Put it on the line in 90 days

This article in today's NYT, which is a sketch of random people from across the state (upstate and down) about what they think about the possibility that Caroline Schlossberg Kennedy, daughter of JFK, might become the seat filler for the New York State (NYS) federal Senate seat which will become vacant when Hillary Clinton becomes Secretary of State next month, pretty much covers it. For some, huge hopes for the return of alleged magic created during the administration of the president who screwed Marilyn Monroe. For others, anger at the sheer arrogance that a Kennedy is entitled to anything at all; and for a third camp, bewilderment that after all these years of being in the background, why now?

Under NYS law, a by-election doesn't have to be held for the seat until the midterms in 2010; the person who Gov. David Paterson appoints on an interim basis can sit unopposed for the next 22 months. That is wrong.

If Mrs. Kennedy wants the seat that bad, she should be willing to put her job on the line and ask the NYS legislature to pass a law requiring a by-election within 90 days of her appointment, no later than April 14, 2009 -- and use the campaign in the by-election to prove she is a truly different type of candidate and not just another f***ing Kennedy.

While she has many progressive ideas including supporting same sex marriage and abortion rights, and she is an ardent supporter of an undivided Jerusalem, she does have one Achilles heel -- she supports tougher gun control, not a popular idea Upstate which except for the cities is NRA Central. Don't forget, Hillary lost upstate by 10 percent in 2000 and was only saved by a huge majority in the NYC metro area.

NYS should have the right to say if they want a Kennedy (or anyone else for that matter) in the Upper Chamber -- not have it shoved in their faces like a fait accompli.

Back in 1991, when John Heinz of Pennsylvania was killed in a plane crash, the governor of the state, Bob Casey Sr., appointed Harris Wofford to fill the seat until a by-election could be held (which state law requires). Even though he was far behind the Republican candidate, Richard Thornburgh (who resigned as Bush 41's Attorney General), Wofford accepted the appointment and willingly ran in a by-election. No one seriously thought Wofford would win -- after all, he was a JFK hack, an advisor on civil rights and the Peace Corps. Worse, saying one was associated with any "Kennedy," in many rural parts of Pennsylvania, is like whispering the number 666.

But Wofford had an ace in the hole: The campaign was run by the tag team of Jim Carville and Paul Begala, until then two total unknowns outside of most circles. Wofford slam dunked Thornburgh by 10 percent when the by-election was finally held, mostly on a promise to try to bring universal health coverage to the country with his state acting as a pilot project. And we all know what Carville-Begala as well as George Stephanopoulos did for Bill Clinton the following year.

Wofford lost in the generals three years later to Ricky Santorum, one of the dominoes that fell in the Gingrich revolution (his position on gun control, which toughened during his three years in the Senate, didn't help) but when the process started in 1991 he knew he could lose but he took the risk. As for Thornburgh, he knew there was a risk as well and he was left out of the cold all together -- by that time, his post at the White House had already been filled by William Barr and instead had to take a job as the #2 in the US delegation at the United Nations. (In one of those full circle things, Santorum lost the seat in 2006 to Bob Casey Jr.)

If it's good enough for Pennsylvania next door, it's good enough for NYS. There should be a by-election, just as much as there should be one to fill the vacancy left by Barack Obama in Illinois and probably will be to circumvent Blagojevich.

At least Mrs. Kennedy would have a job to fall back on if she lost -- many New Yorkers don't have that privilege right now. And she should get her own advisors too, not rely on those who brought Billary to national attention.

Sidebar: When I ran the spellcheck for this post, one of the suggestions for Schlossberg was sleazebag. Caroline has thankfully stayed away from that kind of sleaze that most of her family's been involved with, but shouldn't NYS residents be the judge of that -- now?

UPDATE (11:26 am EST, 1626 GMT): Minor edits. Also, all the Sunday talk shows today are talking as if Mrs. Kennedy's appointment is a slam dunk. If it is, I hope Mrs. Kennedy knows what she's getting into -- Capitol Hill is a dog eat dog world, totally unlike the fairyland menagerie that her mother created to deceive the American people.

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Saturday, December 20, 2008

Back into deficit -- it didn't have to be this way

In his year-end television interviews, Stephen Harper indicated that the deficit this year -- and he actually admitted there would be a deficit -- would be in the neighbourhood of 30 billion.

He is damned from two fronts -- his conservative core who will accuse him of abandoning Laffler for Keynes, and his progressive opponents who will note that he wouldn't be in this position if he had not cut the GST from 7 percent.

There is no question that Canada is coming from a far better position than the States. But that's because of tough steps that the federal and provincial governments took during the 1990s -- massive cuts in the public service, reorganizing transfer payment and cost sharing and only then when the debt to GDP ratio had shrunk to a much more managable level were income tax cuts provided.

With the last year of surplus, which ended on March 31 of this year, we essentially were back where we were when Trudeau finally left office -- adjusted for population growth and inflation. While that certainly puts us in a better position to run a deficit from, since our debt is way less than half of what the American burden is, it would have been even better if we had had a surplus that could be counted on for a rainy day such as this so the deficit would not have been as large.

It was that prudence that helped Canada weather the recession that came about after the 9/11 attacks. We were able to fund security improvements because we had the money to spend. What did the Americans do? Borrow money from the very people who funded the attacks, rogue elements in the Saudi royal family. And they still hold the West hostage by being able to set the price of oil at their whim. Market conditions have driven down the price but that's only temporary -- when things get better, the prices will skyrocket and America will be back to where this all started.

Remember, had the tax situation been frozen where it was in 2001 when Clinton left office after actually running a couple of surpluses, the US would be close to debt free right now and able to afford all the bailouts it is engineering to prevent a worldwide disaster. Instead, Bush decided to give a huge tax cut and ran his country back into deficit and that was before 9/11. When you keep borrowing money like that, soon you become a banana republic, not even able to pay the interest on the debt.

I just find it so odd, even funny, that neo-conservatives in any country keep talking about smaller government, that government is the problem etc. Yet when they're done, the government is way bigger and the funds available for real priorities just petty cash if there is any of that at all. Am I the only one wondering how program spending has increased by about 25% over the last three years when population plus inflation has been less than half of that? And on top of that, they cut taxes to drain themselves even more.

Income tax cuts would have been better, getting money back into the private sector; that would have raised GST monies so the overall result would be revenue neutrality. More important, if I was the one running the show, I would not have cut the GST until the debt to GDP ratio was below 25%, a level at which we no longer had to float bonds on the foreign market and we could take care of ourselves.

In short, Harper got us into this mess -- or rather back into the mess that progressives tried to get us out of. He owes an explanation when Parliament resumes on how he's going to get us out now without screwing us over.

Otherwise, the coalition option remains a viable one.

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Friday, December 19, 2008

Will Bentonville get the message?

Maybe it's the stupid idea that many of the powerful have that every union member is a Commie (which is simply not true, many if not most front line employees on shop floors and in office pools are actually social conservatives), but Wal-Mart closes one of their stores or a unit within it anytime sometime tries and succeeds in getting a union inside the doors. But if the trendlines keep continuing, they may soon have little choice but to sit down and actually negotiate liveable working conditions.

The latest victory: A Wal-Mart store in Hull, Québec; not even two weeks after a certification in Weyburn, Saskatchewan.

Fantastic.

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Deep Throat dead

Not exactly a hero (he was part of the FBI's goon squad and also the very illegal investigation into the just as illegal Weather Underground), not exactly a villain (often pushing paper like most bureaucrats, google or yahoo "red cross ™ toilet paper" to see what I mean) -- but W. Mark Felt was just someone in the FBI who had the guts to do the right thing. That's all I have to say about it.

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