If the projections hold, the next President of France will be Nicolas Sarkozy; which means another five years of conservative rule there. The fact he's the son of immigrants will not help him at all as he attempts to go into a very aggressive program of reform including getting rid of the 35 hour week and cracking down on illegal migrants. Expect some massive general strikes during the next twelve months as he moves forward.
The next step in the election process will be the Parliamentary elections in about a month. Hopefully the French will see some sense and vote in a moderate or liberal legislature to counteract Sarkozy. Cohabitation may not be a bad thing -- in fact Ségolène Royal, the runner-up today, might be able to do more as Prime Minister than as President; and even if she doesn't win there I don't think we've seen the last of her yet.
Vote for this post at Progressive Bloggers.
4 comments:
What does this election result affect Canada?
What can Harper learn from Sarkozy, or what Dion can learn from Royal?
I guess you were hoping for a Royal victory.
Yes, mushroom, I was hoping for Royal to win because France has sunk into a crisis of confidence under Chirac and Sarkozy was the point man who screwed up royally (no pun intended) during the riots of 2005.
Dion needs to consolidate his base. There is still some infighting within the party and he has to put a stop to that. He also needs to avoid making some of the mistakes Royal did -- such as when she implied she might support a yes vote on Quebec independence. He needs a concise and coherent platform that Canadians can understand and it can't be just a one trick pony about the environment.
Actually, I think it was Sarkozy who learned from Harper. So if Harper wants a majority he might want to do the same as before -- but clearly demonstrate to Canadians he has no intention of being Bush lite even if he is.
Both have to unite their respective cores and appeal to the centre ... it's the 20% of Canadians who are undecided who determine elections. The other 80% are spoken for and will not change votes under any circumstances.
Blastfurnace,
47 per cent for Royal is not a bad result. Name a country in which a Socialist party can mobilize that much support in the year 2007. Jack Layton should be paying attention, but he isn't.
Only a Canadian would say that Royal supporting Hezbollah and supporting a yes vote for Quebec independence is a mistake. Some would call it straight talking and allying herself with the Quebec and French left. Straight talking is what Dion needs, particularly since he is the compromise candidate a la Segolene.
I find Sarkozy to be harder edge. He never compromised. More like Harris in 1995 than Harper 2004, 2006. CPC bloggers may be encouraging Harper to go hard right. But while Sarko stayed hard right, he is smart enough not
to ally himself to the loony right of the US or even Opus Dei. Sarko mixed populism and he even attacked the Catholic position on homosexuality. This is something Harper can never do as the so-cons can act like a millstone around his neck.
Even if I disagree with Sarko, I find him to be intelligent. He has learned the art of using soundbites, but would be comfortable discussing morality in a discussion panel on television. Unfortunately, this is what is missing in US style politics. Politicians stay on message too much, to the point that we never get to know them enough.
You raise some good points, Mushroom. 47% is an excellent tally -- just under the 48% that Lionel Jospin had when he lost to Chirac in '95 -- and Royal should indeed be very happy with that.
And yes, Sarkozy is hard-edged. Faults he may have but he's far better than Chirac and maybe he's the tough medicine France needs. And he doesn't appear to be a Bush lapdog either -- in his acceptance speech tonight he slammed the American government's environmental policies, and in his words said that "friends can differ," meaning he's not about to support the so-called "War on Terror" any time soon.
He's his own man and for that I respect him. I do wish him the best because his country has a lot of problems and the Eurozone is being dragged down in part by France's recent underperformance.
Post a Comment