Monday, March 26, 2007

A changing of the guard in Québec?

When the Québec election campaign started a month ago, most people including me suspected that the incumbent Jean Charest would just cruise to another victory albeit with a reduced majority. No real genius involved in that one: He seemed like the least worst choice even if he did break his promise from last time to reduce provincial income taxes to the national average. (Québec taxes are generally the highest in the country for lower and middle income people, second highest for the wealthy after Newfoundland-Labrador.)

Well, the late great Harold Wilson said it best -- "A week in politics is a lifetime," and the last four weeks have seen nothing short of a revolution, the most significant one since the period during the 1960s when Québec transformed itself from a church-dominated society to a secular one, the independence movement united and the one powerful Union Nationale sank into irrelevance (it lost power for the last time in 1970 and was disbanded in 1989).

If polls are reflective of the mood of Québecois at large, we will see a minority government in Québec at the end of the day -- the first in 129 years; with the balance of power held by no less than "Super" Mario Dumont and the Action démocratique du Québec, or ADQ. If anything, this tells me as a non-resident of the province that people are sick and tired of the traditional divide between federalists (led by Charest) and pro-independence forces of the PQ (led by André Boisclair) and that there has long been a desire for a third way.

To be honest I don't really care that much for the social conservatism of Dumont, not the least of which is his opposition to the Rand Formula which underpins union security in Canada and especially in Québec (I think compulsory union dues in a company with a certified local is only fair because both union and non-union members get the same benefits from collective bargaining agreements), but at least there is a viable third alternative for all people in the province. I consider the Green Party to be a choice as well, but it never seemed to get the kind of traction its federal-level partner has been getting the last year or so. Dumont clearly wants more power for the provinces and even a Constitution of Québec, which fits right in to Stephen Harper's vision of Canada which foresees the removal of federal influence from some areas and an aversion to the use of the spending power in new areas (although that didn't stop PMS from giving provinces large wads of cash last week).

This "third way," if one can call it that, and its surprising appeal will make for some pretty interesting three way races tonight. I watched the SRC program Tout le monde en parle with a bit of amusement last night as nearly every guest -- including the A-listers who don't give a damn about politics -- were asked to make sealed envelope predictions about what will happen tonight. (Guess they'll be unsealed either tonight or on next week's broadcast.) So I will be as bold as to call it openly right now. With a magic number of 64 for an outright majority, my best guess is:

PLQ: 53
PQ: 47
ADQ: 25

I doubt very much the PQ and ADQ will form an alliance to overthrow the Liberals. Dumont is far too conservative for the socialist-leaning péquistes. But I do think both Charest and Boisclair will be finished after tonight and we'll be hearing from Dumont for a long, long time to come.

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