Harper may want to think twice

With this week's stunning second place showing by the ADQ, PMS may be tempted to think that now's the time to go to the polls and shore up his conservative support in Québec while he can to get the majority he wants. He may want to think twice about that. While there may have been a shift rightwards, I think it's more correct to say that the move was from the left to the centre -- not the right. And he also may have a big problem with people out West who think he's abandoned his principles.

I think that many who voted ADQ came both from federalists who were sick and tired of the Liberals who just presumed their votes would be automatic so as to avoid another referendum; as well as péquistes who wanted the province to be governed rather than just being told the only way out was to get out. Mario Dumont's team, such that it is, perhaps represents a new reality in the province.

For as long as there have been only two viable choices for provincial parties in Québec, it's been really a choice between left (the Liberals) and the lefter (the PQ). The state was always seen as the solution, not part of the problem or even a problem at all. This may have been an appropriate model for such things as nationalizing electricity, as well as health and education. The province's power system is the envy of the world, with a capacity 50% larger than Ontario's with 3/4 of the population -- and it's still a single authority rather than the jigsaw puzzle that exists in the latter. Health care is always an issue (as it is in the other provinces) but the system of CLSCs or free clinics is unique in the country. As for universities, tuition is less than half what it is elsewhere in Canada.

However, the state went further than other provinces in trying to micromanage every detail of life in Québec. Perhaps not a nanny state like Norway; but certainly preeminent if not intrusive. And the decision to be all things to all people came at a cost -- a massive debt load. Clearly, some tough choices have to be made. Power rates may have to go up to pay off Hydro's bonds. Some rationalization of health care may have to be considered. And tuition fees -- regrettably -- will have to go up to some reasonable level. Dumont's ideas clearly appeal to those who want either the state to get out all together, a small section of the population; but they also appeal to those who want Québec to back off just a bit, enough to give families room to breathe. In other words, something similar to what exists in other provinces.

I think Harper is under the mistaken belief Québecois have decided they're ready for some form of the Klein and Harris "revolutions." Nonsense. They're less idealistic and more pragmatic than Harper's Western base. And it's true that 10 Conservatives were elected in Québec last year during the federal election but I perceive that's because people wanted to express their anger over Sponsorgate without going to the "fallback" separatist candidate -- as if the NDP didn't even exist. The vote this past week was more than just changing the debate, it was also about adding a new voice to the debate -- a breath of fresh air.

As far as the West goes -- Harper might want to make sure he does have his support shored up because some decisions he's made are going to come home to roost when he does drop the writ. Consider:

He spoke out so eloquently against floor crossing in opposition yet had no scruples in getting at least a couple of Liberals to join his team -- one of them the very day he was sworn it. He said he wouldn't tax income trusts, but he did; angering not only seniors who rely on the distributions for income but also the resource and real estate sectors who form a big part of his base. He made clear he wouldn't give any special deals to Québec and yet in last week's budget he gave the province the lion's share of equalization even if the payout is justified. Not to mention he once badmouthed Atlantic Canadians for their "cycle of dependency" and now wishes we'd forget he said that (we haven't), stonewalled on the issue of devolution for the NWT until -- surprise -- last week, and just the other day made it clear the Opposition is not welcome at next week's 90th anniversary commemoration of the Battle of Vimy Ridge in France while forgetting that the WWI Parliament was led by a coalition of Conservatives and Liberals who set aside their differences because there was a war going on, thus turning our men and women in uniform who serve regardless of who's in power into a political prop.

We Canadians are a very fickle bunch. Loyalties don't easily transfer from one election to another or from the provincial level to the federal. And the lack of consistency without a valid explanation makes one wonder what Harper'd do if he did get a majority. And so I think Harper's "promise" to Duceppe means nothing -- he'll call a snap election before the other parties, or the people, are ready.

Two words: Ontario, 1990.

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