Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Clinton wins NH .. just

Hillary Clinton managed to win a narrow victory over Barack Obama (39-37) in the Democratic primary in New Hampshire last night after her pool of tears stunt on Monday; but if she thinks that's going to be enough to win the nomination in the coming weeks, it will not. In terms of delegate count it didn't matter much, both got 9 of the 22 up for grabs so really it was a tie. (John Edwards, with a respectable 17%, got the remaining 4.) Five other delegates, incidentally, are the so called "super"delegates or ex officios and weren't in play.

The Republicans have everything to lose; given the slowing economy, the Democrats won back Congress in 2006, no incumbent, a massive foreign policy failure and no real foreign policy success to date. But Clinton's a non-starter. Why?

Clinton simply lacks the level charisma or "hero" status of her opponents, which opponents do have one or the other -- both Democratic and Republican. In my opinion, Clinton is going to lead her party to defeat in November if she wins the nod, unless a truly viable third candidate emerges (someone like Mike Bloomberg, the NYC Mayor). Any other Democrats wins, and it will a cakewalk.

No one in the Media will say it out loud, but the Evita Peron factor looms large. Do Americans want to go the way of Argentina? I sincerely hope not. The smart money is still on Barack Obama as the Presidential nominee, with John Edwards as his veep. America needs the future, not the past.

On the Republican side, John McCain won with 37%, Mitt Romney 32%, Mike Huckabee 11%. This is still anyone's game with about 47 states left on the table for the GOP and 48 for the Dems.

Turnout overall was 85%, a record. If that proves to be a trend in other states, there could be a real democratic revolution coming that country's way.

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1 comment:

Oxford County Liberals said...

I can't agree, Robert. I think that Bush has so poisoned the political waters in the US for the Republicans that any one of the top 3 Democratic candidates will win in Novemeber, regardless of who is picked by either side. You'll also see increased Democratic majorities in Congress as a result of that too, by the looks of things.