Five years ago Jean-Marie Le Pen, the facist leader of the National Front of France, shocked the world when he managed to finish in second place in the opening round of the Presidential race, forcing a showdown between him and the incumbent Jacques Chirac. (Everyone had expected a rerun of 1995 between the conservative Chirac and his Socialist Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin.)
This time, Le Pen is well out of the running -- in fact he finished in fourth place and at age 78 he may well decide it's time to quit politics. At just 11.5% of the vote, it may well be that it's the FN itself that's a spent force.
Thankfully, the runoff will feature the two mainstream candidates -- Nicolas Sarkozy of the UMP (Union for a Popular Movement) at 29.6% and Ségolène Royal of the Socialists at 25.2%. Also impressive is the huge turnout -- nearly 85% of registered voters. Clearly they weren't going to be caught off guard like they were back in 2002 when many French spent the day at the beach. The choice between right and left is quite clear, and given France's big problems including a recession that has lasted 12 years and some misguided policies (including a 35 hour work week) whoever gets the keys to the Élysée Palace in a fortnight will have their work cut out for them.
For now, however, democracy is the real winner in France. If there is a God, Le Pen est fini.
UPDATE (7:29 PM EDT, 2329 GMT): With 95% of the ballots cast, the standings are Sarkozy at 31.01%, Royal 25.64%, the moderate François Bayrou at 18.54% and Le Pen at 10.63%, with no other candidate getting more that 4.5%. Royal has her vote concentrated in the Southwest and Breton and some of the overseas territories, including St. Pierre and Miquelon off Newfoundland while Sarkozy is pretty solid elsewhere. Obviously Bayrou is the king (or queen) maker, although Ipsos research says that based on the raw nunmbers, Sarkozy will win 54-46 in two weeks. But a 4 % swing isn't insurmountable. I'm rooting for Royal, but even Sarkozy would probably do better than the schlepping that Chirac has been doing the last dozen years.
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1 comment:
Well, that's good news for France. Mind you, Sarkozy is a thug as well and little better than Le Pen, and Royal is more neoliberal than socialist. But it is still good news.
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