Monday, May 5, 2008

Final polls for May 6th

Still no word from the Rasmussen group (at this writing) about last minute data from North Carolina and Indiana; however has taken a weighted average "poll of polls" and has made the following predictions:

North Carolina: Obama 50.1, Clinton 41.5
Indiana: Clinton 49.7, Obama 43.9

This presumes that the remainder in each state votes for the "uncommitted" delegate column -- although why they would do that this late in the game is beyond reason.

My sense is NC is going to be a relative walk for Obama. He'll do very well in the western part of the state as well as in the "research triangle" (really Silicon Valley East) and Winston-Salem. Clinton will get most of her votes in the area east of the Piedmont. My prediction is Obama 54, Clinton 46.

IN is a somewhat different story. Obama has picked up some momentum in the last little while but it's been offset by more pickups by Clinton. He'll do well in the Gary-Hammond area and Indianapolis while she'll take the south. The northern part of the state, particularly South Bend (Notre Dame) will tell the tale. Prediction: Clinton 52, Obama 48.

If, however, Obama can pull off an upset in Indiana and win that state, there will be enormous pressure on Clinton to throw in the towel. Even if she exploit the "nuclear option" and get Florida and Michigan back in (which would be hypocritical on her part since neither candidate campaigned in those states in the first place) an Indiana win would send a flood of the PLEOs Obama's way.

We'll have a better idea tomorrow night.

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