West Virginia has its primary today and while it's safe to say Hillary Clinton will win big it may be somewhat closer than polls suggest. I say somewhat because while there's no way Barack Obama will win that state, if he can keep the gap within 20 points it will be a moral victory for him and a Pyrrhic one for her.
But even if she wins by the 2/3 majority expected, her net gain in delegates will be just 10 -- peanuts. Very few (except her and Terry McAuliffe, maybe) are expecting she'd actually get 85% and with it a clean sweep.
However, I suggest that a race we should all keep an eye on today is the runoff by-election in Mississippi's 1st district, which includes the cities of Columbus, Corinth, Grenada, Southaven and Tupelo. (See map here.) Like some other southern states like Louisiana, there's a second round ballot if no one gets 50% in the first, like in France. The district has been traditionally Democratic but switched Republican during the Gingrich revolution, ending a 122 year winning streak. Now, there's a strong chance it may go back to the Dems.
How bad has it gotten for the GOP? Put it this way: The district tends to vote Republican about 10% more than the national average. In the first round ballot three weeks ago, though, the donkey came within 400 votes of winning it all. Even Dick Cheney was sent in to campaign there -- yes, Dick, and he's not exactly popular down there either.
The Democratic candidate, Travis Childers, has been guaranteed a seat on the Agriculture committee if he wins and in a mostly rural district that could be a huge boon as the farm bill is being negotiated.
What has the Republican candidate, Greg Davis done? The Obama card, of course -- even though Childers has never met Obama and is also pro-life and pro-gun. Childers isn't entirely innocent, though: He's claimed Davis is a carpetbagger since his hometown of Southaven is a suburb of Memphis (literally, the two cities are across the state line from each other). If Davis wins, he'll probably get a crappy committee assignment -- say, the Library of Congress or the District of Columbia. That too will weigh on the minds of voters in MS-01 today.
When even the main paper in Memphis (the Commercial Appeal) endorses the guy not from the immediate region, you know the GOP is in trouble.
A loss in the 'burbs of Chicago, in Baton Rouge -- and possibly in northwest Mississippi too? People are really hungry for change if the Republicans can't win the easiest contests of all. A Dem win -- or even a very close loss -- would put that state in play for the fall Presidential contest and we all know Clinton has already given up on Old Miss. Not Obama, I would think.
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