Predictions for US Election 2008

It's Election Day in the US, and as this post goes up voters in two New Hampshire villages -- Dixville Notch and Hart's Location -- are already casting their ballots, as per long standing tradition.

The election is a bit marred with the news that Barack Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died just one day before today's historic milestone. To their credit, the McCains and Palins have offered their condolences to Obama's family which after the nastiest election in 76 years is actually almost completely unexpected.

Okay, predictions:

America will finally get rid of its ghosts, stand up to the religious right and wanabee rednecks (like Limbaugh) that make real rednecks (Joe and Jane Factory and/or Office workers) look like fools -- and elect Obama as the country's first black President. He will do this by picking up Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota and Virginia. Georgia will go John McCain but just slightly; same with West Virginia, and in a huge shock, McCain will just barely hang on to Arizona and Montana.

There will be no blue-to-red switches -- the Democrats will hold on to all their territory from 2004.

One thing to watch for are the returns from Kansas and Oklahoma, two reliably Republican states if there are any. Any Democrat would consider himself lucky to get 30% in any year. If Obama can break 40% in both, McCain is in for a long night because it will mean the heart of the Bible Belt has decided the GOP has betrayed them.

I think the so-called "Bradley Effect" will be diminished due to the huge numbers of people who have already voted absentee or at advance polls. Still, the number of people voting for McCain simply because Obama is black will be there, I'd say 1 or 2% -- not the 6 to 8% so many fear.

But it won't be enough, since about 60% of the advance votes have already gone Obama's way.

Final result:
Popular vote: Obama 53, McCain 45, Others 2.
Electoral College: Obama 378, McCain 160.

Senate: As of this morning, there's about a 50-50 shot the Democrats will get the 60 seats they need to have a filibuster-proof majority which could prove a boon for Obama (since most of his agenda will sail through) or a bust for McCain if the latter pulls off an upset (since the Dems would effectively form a firewall). Ted Stevens of Alaska will be out thanks to his corruption conviction last week, giving the seat to Mark Begich. Good riddance.

Also gone will be Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina for her libelous ad accusing Kay Hagan of being an atheist (she's actually an elder in the Presbyterian Church). For a distinguished woman like Dole, who served at Transportation under Reagan and Labour under Bush 41 -- and later as the extremely competent President of the American Red Cross -- this is a terrible ending to her career.

I further predict the Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky will lose, just barely, to Bruce Lunsford. McConnell will lose not for his long time opposition to smaller cars and fuel efficiency standards (which would have helped out during the current economic crisis) but because he's married to current Labour Secretary Elaine Chao, the only remaining original member of the Bush Administration besides Dubya and Dick Cheney. Even Bluegrassers, I think, have had enough of the crap from Washington and they want to send one final message to Bush 43 to go screw himself.

But in the end, the Democrats won't get the 60 seats they so desperately want. It all comes down to Minnesota, where Norm Coleman is facing a tough challenge from comedian Al Franken. Much as I'd like to see a truly smart and thoughtful guy like Franken win, he'll be stopped thanks to a strong third-party campaign by Dean Barkley who has been polling about 15% on average. Coleman will take it by a narrow margin.

Final Result: Democrats 57, Republicans 41, Independents 2 -- just one short. Which means Joe Lieberman will keep his committee chair for at least another two years.

House: I don't know too much about specific races, but if the tone of the advertising three districts in southeast Florida are any indication, this is going to be one nasty night overall for the Republicans. But not quite a wipe-out where say the Dems wind up with 270 or more. I predict a +21 net shift for the Democrats (they will lose a couple of seats each in Florida and Pennsylvania), leaving the total at 256 to 179.

Finally as for ballot initiatives, there are several key ones to watch:

California: 1A, to fund a high speed rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco cutting the land travel time to 2½ hours; with future links to other major cities. Given the state's pro-environment culture I think it will pass but narrowly, say 51-49.

Proposition 5, would attempt to divert more people away from the prison system crippled by "three strikes and you're out." With all five living Governors against, both GOP and donkeys, it's hard to see this one passing. It will lose, 53-47.

Proposition 8, which would ban gay marriages. With Ahnold now coming out against (one of the few things he and Maria Shriver have ever agreed on politically), it will go down to defeat but still not by that much -- I'll say 53-47. Again, watch to see how many Obama supporters vote "yes."

In San Francisco, two initiatives of note. Proposition "K" would effectively legalize prostitution in the city. To be fair, exploitation of sex workers alarms me but what's even worse is a situation that allows pimps to go free while street walkers are the ones who are charged with criminality. This does nothing more than level the playing field as should be the case and make sure the police give victims of crime equal treatment. I predict yes, 52-48. Meanwhile, Proposition "R" would rename the sewage treatment plant in the city after George W. Bush. (Seriously.) Liberal as it may be, Frisco also has too much class to smear someone like that and it'll be defeated bigtime, say a 2-1 margin.

Massachusetts: Initiate 1, which would outlaw the state income tax. With a potential $12 billion shortfall and the burden shifted to property taxes (which would kill an already battered real estate market), this has potential of revolt written all over it. "Taxachusetts" actually has a fairly low flat income tax (about 5½%), dating from Revolution days, and an overall tax burden somewhere near the median (in 28th place to be exact) and people are more upset with the unaccountable Massachusetts Turnpike Commission and tolls going for nowhere meaningful, than their bi-weekly withholdings. It will be defeated easily, 60-40. (Last time out, however, the yes got about 45% so it might have been even closer this time but for the current economic meltdown.)

Washington State: Initiative 1000 which would provide for "death with dignity," similar to a law in Oregon (Measure 16). The last time the state voted on the issue in 1991 it was voted down by a large margin. Despite the many safeguards in the law, many will still see it as "assisted suicide" and so it will face a tough fight. It also raises the question about the Hippocratic Oath and if a physician will be forced to write a prescription for a lethal dose of drugs. Many progressives oppose the proposed law and with justification. I'll say it passes but by squeaker, less than 1%. (It'll be an urban-rural split, as is usually the case on social issues in so many places across the US.)

UPDATE (6:36 AM EST, 1136 GMT): Dixville Notch went for Obama 15-6, Hart's Location went 17-10 with 2 write-ins for renegade Republican Ron Paul. True neither has ever been a reliable bellwether of what comes later in the day -- but it's kind of fun being first, and the fact Dixville has picked a Democrat for the first time in 40 years does say something.

Interestingly, Ralph Nader, who is on the ballot in New Hampshire and a handful of other states, got zero -- and this part of the state, near the Canadian border, has long had a libertarian and pro-environment streak that plays into Nader's hands quite nicely. Maybe people have finally realized he's still stuck in the 1960s -- and the movement then is not the same as the revolution of now.

As an afterthought, the computer models I've read show there's still a slim chance that McCain (about 3%) could still win the electoral college; but he'd have to run the board and I just don't see how he can do it if Obama wins even one of the battlegrounds. Given a possible record turnout, I'm going to take back what I said before that we'll know within a couple of hours. It will be another "Long Day's Journey into Night" -- just like in the UK where the results are called all night and well into the next day's afternoon.

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