Monday, February 4, 2008

Countdown to the political tsunami

Something has been happening the last few weeks that has been so hard to describe, but can only be called momentum. Obama has now made this a real horserace for the Democrats, and both Rasmussen (+1) and Zogby (+4) now have him ahead in the key state of California. For the GOP, McCain appears to have the edge in many of tomorrow's Tsunami Tuesday sweepstakes; with contested races in no fewer than 22 states and the territory of American Samoa.

Given the Republicans have adopted a winner take all system in most states McCain could have it all wrapped up tomorrow or be very close to it. The Democrats, on the other hand, could be dragging this out for a long time yet because they have a proportional representation system -- in some states it's statewide, in others it's district by district. But enough wins for Obama tomorrow and the die could be cast.

The one possible wrinkle in all of this -- Ralph Nader. Yes, it looks like the hero turned zero wants to run another spoiler campaign in an attempt to siphon votes away from whomever is the Democratic candidate. Even if he can poll at least 5%, the minimum to be considered a significant threat, a third party candidacy is a threat to the incumbent party -- the GOP -- not the Dems. Less than that, however, and it could be a problem.

I find it interesting that the CBC, the BBC and al-Jazeera, among many others, are giving up a chunk of their schedules tomorrow to cover tomorrow's races. That in itself tells me just engaged the world is, and that the world is watching to see if America turns to the future or the past with both the mainline parties. Even McCain, elder statesman that he is, would be a breath of fresh air for his party compared to the other candidates.

In other news: Karl Rove is now part of the political analysis team for Fox News. Shouldn't he be facing indictment for treason instead?

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