Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Even worse for McCain in Arizona?

Thirty two states have advance polls for the election a week today. This morning on NBC's Today, Chuck Todd told Meredith Vieira that in North Carolina, one of the "battlegrounds" this time out, 50% of the total turnout in 2004 have already voted. This figure does not include newly registered voters which the Democrats lead in by huge numbers. Todd also says that Colorado and Virginia are no longer battlegrounds -- based on the early returns it's Advantage Obama by a longshot.

The rule of thumb is when there's a large number of absentee ballot requests of people in-state or a large number of people vote at advance polls, it's trouble for the incumbent party. The turnout in Dallas-Fort Worth for early polls is approaching 1 in 5; and while McCain will probably still win Texas my read is that Obama will at least sweep the northern part of the state. When you get it up to 1 in 2 as you are in other Confederate states, then it's a sign people don't just want change but a revolution.

Yesterday I mentioned McCain's lead in Arizona is down to five (by Rasmussen's count). This morning, another poll has the lead down to 2. Admittedly, Carol and Pete Zimmerman are Democratic hacks, and a number that close may be distorted due to Obama's huge lead in Pima County which includes Tucson and the Tohono O'odham and San Xavier reservations, the latter is actually an exclave of the former. (Source: Arizona Daily Star of Tucson; article also provides a county breakdown of the vote which shows where each candidate has strength.)

This is one state where the final result could actually be based on turnout from the states' First Nations. Just as one example: The Tohono people, about 25,000, are not very happy about the border fence which cuts across their traditional land which crosses the international boundary -- on the other hand, as one of country's first lines of defence they have to deal with drug and human smugglers and the tribe is not getting adequate compensation from the federal government to do the job. Also, unlike Aboriginals in Canada along the northern border who have dual Canada-US status, there is no US citizenship for Tohonos living in Mexico or vice versa and attempts to redress this keep getting defeated in Congress.

Aboriginals in America are just as diverse as non-natives. Like the rest of their fellow citizens some are Democrats, some are Republicans and some independents. The fact their concerns have not been addressed by the Exempt Media is shameful and racist, in my humble opinion.

I'm surprised the networks haven't picked up on the fact Arizona is now a battleground. They might get egg in their fact a week today, too.

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