Saturday, February 16, 2008

Delay's gerrymander may favour Obama

This is interesting ... remember a couple of years ago when the Texas Democrats refused to agree to a mid-cycle redistricting plan; and under orders from Tom Delay arrest warrants were issued for the Dems, when they walked out of the legislature resulting in lack of quorum?

One writer suggests that plan which split the white and black Dem vote in many districts to ensure a Republican win may wind up working in favour of Barack Obama. Since about 2/3 of the delegates are selected by district and only 1/3 by the statewide vote, Obama is primarily focused in Houston, where six of the districts intersect.

This one is really fascinating. It also does raise one of the pitfalls of the particular form of PR the Democrats chose for this cycle; that Obama could lose the popular vote in a really close contest, but still wind up with more delegates as has happen in some states already.

Which vote should people therefore pay more attention to; the state vote or that by district? This one could be messy. But if this helps Delay to shoot himself in the foot; if in fact it helps Texas become a swing state or even a Blue State, so much the better.

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