Monday, September 22, 2008

Quick morning notes (2008-09-22)

The Canadian election has gotten some notice this morning at HuffPo. Jeremy Jacquot notes the stark policy differences between Harper and Dion and how a carbon tax would work (putting emphasis on the fact the gasoline tax would not go up and diesel would not go up for at least a year); as well as the fact that the environment is getting almost no notice at all in the US campaign.

I also note Scott Tribe's referral to the daily tracking poll being done by Nanos. Yesterday's results showed that the lead the Conservatives have over the Liberals dropped from 11 to 5 in just two days. Since a tracking poll only interviews 300 per day and the announced totals show a four day rolling average of 1200 one does have to be careful. But I note that even out West, the heartland of Harper support, the Cons are being eroded at.

This weekend's past events, including the withdrawal of a Conservative candidate (BigCityLib deserves some credit for that!) at the last minute may not be a good sign either. There are still three weeks to go ... but there is reason to be optimistic now.

Last quick note, we know at least one element of the Dion platform: The Liberals are vowing to eliminate the tax on income trusts that the Cons vowed not to do then broke their promise. For seniors, many of whom were using the trusts to derive a low to no tax income, this will be a huge consideration. The Conservatives are proposing to increase the exemption on pensions to $3000 from $2000 which would mean a $150 tax cut; and many seniors got hit with a tax assessment much greater than that. Seniors also vote in greater numbers than us younger folk -- something pollsters often miss as well when they determine "likely voters."

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